Cause and effect

Story hook

CSAT 2018, a question reads:

Statements: I. Last month, the state government raised the minimum purchase price of wheat by ₹150 per quintal. II. The wheat output in the state has risen by 12% this year.

Which of the following is the most correct? (a) I is the cause and II is its effect. (b) II is the cause and I is its effect. (c) Both are independent causes. (d) Both are effects of an independent cause.

A candidate, just back from a current-affairs class on agricultural policy, marks (a) confidently. Wrong. The correct answer is (d) — both the MSP hike and the higher output could be effects of a good monsoon plus surplus inventories.

The trap is irresistible: policy → outcome feels intuitive. But the timing is wrong (a last month MSP hike cannot drive this year's harvest, which was sown six months ago) and the direction of causation can reverse (the state may have raised MSP because of expected bumper output, to absorb the surplus politically).

Cause-effect and the cousin question course-of-action together cover 5-8 questions per CSAT paper. They test the single most important civil-service skill: separating correlation from causation, and recommendation from policy-grade prescription.

Why this matters for UPSC

For CSAT Paper II (33% = 66/200 to qualify):

• 5-8 questions per paper (varies year to year).
• Each = 2.5 marks, −0.83 penalty. Net: a wrong answer costs 3.33 marks (relative to skip + correct).
• Examiner trap-rate is high — the "obvious" answer is wrong in 60-70% of cases. Discipline matters more than IQ.
• The skill transfers directly to GS-II (policy questions), GS-III (economics), GS-IV (ethics case studies), and interview policy questions.

The candidate who masters this unit gains ~15 marks in CSAT and a measurable edge in essay/interview scoring.